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Economy ‘on a knife-edge’ - Sales plunge as cash-strapped Brits cut back ahead of Budget

Retail sales fell sharply in September as UK households struggle with the cost of living

By Reform Daily Team
Economy ‘on a knife-edge’ - Sales plunge as cash-strapped Brits cut back ahead of Budget
UK retail sales fell sharply last month as Brits battled the soaring cost of living, record high taxes and sky-high energy and fuel bills. 

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said retail sales volumes fell by 0.4% in September.

It was a much steeper drop than expected, with economists having predicted a decline of just 0.1%.

The plunge shows how fragile consumer confidence is ahead of Chancellor John Healey’s first Budget next week.

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, claimed Brits were feeling the pinch right across the country. 

She said: “Households are trimming budgets, cutting back on non-essential items. 
“Consumers are braced for painful energy bills to land, and many will be eyeing interest rates nervously.

“The environment doesn’t bode well for the so-called golden quarter, with the run-up to Christmas so crucial for so many retailers.

“There appears little respite ahead at the pumps given that crude prices have ratcheted up even higher.”

The fall in retail sales followed a 0.7% increase in August and a 0.4% fall in July.
These were both revised upwards in the latest figures, improving from a 0.5% estimated rise for August and a predicted 0.5% decline in July.

The monthly decline was partly linked to weakness from clothing and footwear retailers, which saw a 0.9% fall for September.

Retailers reported that unusually warm weather in September led to subdued sales of autumn and winter clothing lines.

Food stores saw sales fall by 0.4% for the month, representing the weakest performance for four months.

It represented a step back after growth in July and August, after hot summer weather had boosted demand for some products.

Elsewhere, sales volumes of motor fuel lifted by 2.2% despite prices moving higher again as demand for petrol and diesel continued its recovery since prices first spiked early in 2026.

The ONS added that the volume of products bought from retailers was up 0.7% for the third quarter of 2026, compared with the previous three-month period.

Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the Item Club, said: “Digging into the detail, there are some tentative signs that the consumer is coming under pressure.
“Over the last three months, non-food store volumes were flat with some firms reporting that customers are cutting back.”

Jacqueline Windsor, head of retail at PwC UK, said: “With most retailers’ sales coming in the last three months of the year, the upcoming peak season remains on a knife edge.

“This time last year, uncertainty surrounding the late budget at the end of November held back spending in the preceding two months.

“While that makes this year’s comparisons easier, retailers will be hoping that anything announced by the Chancellor this year does not add further to their cost of doing business nor dent consumers’ sentiment, which already seems to have fallen from the highs at the end of summer.”