The Westminster establishment is fond of pigeonholing Reform UK voters as “angry”, “frustrated”, “disillusioned with politics” and “struggling” with the cost-of-living crisis. In other words, they are old, white, dispossessed, uneducated, and lashing out at a world they no longer understand.
Writer, pollster and former Reform UK parliamentary candidate Matt Goodwin says that this narrative could not be more wrong.
Writing on his Substack this week, Goodwin points to a major new report by Sir John Curtice (one of the country’s most respected pollsters) and the National Centre for Social Research, which offers one of the clearest pictures yet of who Reform voters really are and what is driving them.
His conclusion is that Reform UK’s revolt is “not simply driven by political protest”, “by anger or rage against the system”. Nor is it shaped by incoherent beliefs. On the contrary, Goodwin says that the rise of Reform UK reflects “a very large, very distinctive, and increasingly powerful bloc of voters” who have “entirely rational reasons” for backing the party.
Goodwin says the most revealing finding relates to class and employment. Reform UK is not merely attracting the most economically marginalised voters. Rather, it has become “the new party for workers in Britain”.
Support for Reform UK now stands at 45% among lower supervisory and technical workers, 34% among small employers and the self-employed, and 33% among semi-routine and routine workers. This is a broad coalition of “skilled workers, tradesmen, supervisors, technicians, entrepreneurs, small business owners, and blue-collar workers.”
These are people, Goodwin writes, “who work hard, pay taxes, and play by the rules” - but who feel they are constantly overlooked by the institutions that govern them.
Most importantly, Goodwin argues, Reform voters are not chiefly defined by economic concerns, but also by culture and values. They want “stronger borders”, an end to “mass uncontrolled immigration”, and a politics rooted in “national identity, social cohesion, law and order, and traditional values”.
That is why Goodwin describes Reform UK’s rise as “a cultural revolt against the political establishment - not an economic one”.
This matters because, Goodwin concludes, it means Labour cannot defeat Reform UK simply by promising shorter NHS waiting lists or slightly higher growth. Reform voters believe something far deeper has gone wrong with Britain - that they are losing “their country, their culture, their values, and their way of life”. And they believe that only Reform UK is capable of fixing it.
You can subscribe to Matt Goodwin’s Substack here.
Writer, pollster and former Reform UK parliamentary candidate Matt Goodwin says that this narrative could not be more wrong.
Writing on his Substack this week, Goodwin points to a major new report by Sir John Curtice (one of the country’s most respected pollsters) and the National Centre for Social Research, which offers one of the clearest pictures yet of who Reform voters really are and what is driving them.
His conclusion is that Reform UK’s revolt is “not simply driven by political protest”, “by anger or rage against the system”. Nor is it shaped by incoherent beliefs. On the contrary, Goodwin says that the rise of Reform UK reflects “a very large, very distinctive, and increasingly powerful bloc of voters” who have “entirely rational reasons” for backing the party.
Goodwin says the most revealing finding relates to class and employment. Reform UK is not merely attracting the most economically marginalised voters. Rather, it has become “the new party for workers in Britain”.
Support for Reform UK now stands at 45% among lower supervisory and technical workers, 34% among small employers and the self-employed, and 33% among semi-routine and routine workers. This is a broad coalition of “skilled workers, tradesmen, supervisors, technicians, entrepreneurs, small business owners, and blue-collar workers.”
These are people, Goodwin writes, “who work hard, pay taxes, and play by the rules” - but who feel they are constantly overlooked by the institutions that govern them.
Most importantly, Goodwin argues, Reform voters are not chiefly defined by economic concerns, but also by culture and values. They want “stronger borders”, an end to “mass uncontrolled immigration”, and a politics rooted in “national identity, social cohesion, law and order, and traditional values”.
That is why Goodwin describes Reform UK’s rise as “a cultural revolt against the political establishment - not an economic one”.
This matters because, Goodwin concludes, it means Labour cannot defeat Reform UK simply by promising shorter NHS waiting lists or slightly higher growth. Reform voters believe something far deeper has gone wrong with Britain - that they are losing “their country, their culture, their values, and their way of life”. And they believe that only Reform UK is capable of fixing it.
You can subscribe to Matt Goodwin’s Substack here.
