In a new Substack essay, writer and pollster Matt Goodwin has highlighted new polling that reveals where the true mainstream of British public opinion now lies - not among the political and media establishment, but among the country’s “silent majority”.
The findings come from Britain Under Strain, a report drawing on polling about national identity, trust in the state, immigration and political radicalisation.
Its most striking finding is that close to two-thirds of British people believe the social contract between the public and the state is broken. Among Reform UK voters, that figure rises to more than eight in 10.
Goodwin said millions of people had reached the “entirely logical conclusion” that governments “do not keep their promises, cannot be trusted, do not represent ordinary people” and are failing in their most important duty: “protecting our borders and keeping us safe”.
The report also found that 55% of the public believe British identity is disappearing because of diversity. This view is shared by 61% of white British respondents, but also by almost a quarter of non-white respondents. This rises to 90% among Reform UK voters.
Goodwin argued that concern about the impact of mass immigration and demographic change can therefore no longer be dismissed as a fringe, “far-right” position.
“The real mainstream lies elsewhere”, he wrote, “among a silent majority of people who hold far more traditional views, who reject the woke takeover of our institutions [and] who have come to the view that mass immigration and rapid demographic change are weakening British identity.”
The polling also revealed strong support for traditional expressions of patriotism. Some 81% said it was patriotic to fight for Britain, 76% to defend British history, 68% to pledge allegiance to the King and 52% to protect Christian values.
Meanwhile, close to one in three respondents said immigrants and asylum seekers were more likely than average to escape justice. Goodwin said this showed belief in “two-tier Britain” was becoming “far more widespread than the establishment would like us to think”.
One-third of the public also said they would support “remigration”. That number rose to four in 10 Conservative voters and six in 10 Reform UK voters.
It is often claimed by the mainstream media and the political establishment that Reform UK represents a small, “extremist” section of the electorate. But this poll underlines that Reform UK is the only major party willing to give a voice to what millions of ordinary people already believe. On borders, national identity, patriotism and equal treatment under the law, Reform UK voters may express these concerns most strongly, but the polling shows that they are shared across the country.
While Labour and the Tories have ignored, dismissed or even insulted these voters, Reform UK has listened to them - and is best placed to rebuild the broken social contract between the British people and the state.
Subscribe to Matt Goodwin’s Substack here.
The findings come from Britain Under Strain, a report drawing on polling about national identity, trust in the state, immigration and political radicalisation.
Its most striking finding is that close to two-thirds of British people believe the social contract between the public and the state is broken. Among Reform UK voters, that figure rises to more than eight in 10.
Goodwin said millions of people had reached the “entirely logical conclusion” that governments “do not keep their promises, cannot be trusted, do not represent ordinary people” and are failing in their most important duty: “protecting our borders and keeping us safe”.
The report also found that 55% of the public believe British identity is disappearing because of diversity. This view is shared by 61% of white British respondents, but also by almost a quarter of non-white respondents. This rises to 90% among Reform UK voters.
Goodwin argued that concern about the impact of mass immigration and demographic change can therefore no longer be dismissed as a fringe, “far-right” position.
“The real mainstream lies elsewhere”, he wrote, “among a silent majority of people who hold far more traditional views, who reject the woke takeover of our institutions [and] who have come to the view that mass immigration and rapid demographic change are weakening British identity.”
The polling also revealed strong support for traditional expressions of patriotism. Some 81% said it was patriotic to fight for Britain, 76% to defend British history, 68% to pledge allegiance to the King and 52% to protect Christian values.
Meanwhile, close to one in three respondents said immigrants and asylum seekers were more likely than average to escape justice. Goodwin said this showed belief in “two-tier Britain” was becoming “far more widespread than the establishment would like us to think”.
One-third of the public also said they would support “remigration”. That number rose to four in 10 Conservative voters and six in 10 Reform UK voters.
It is often claimed by the mainstream media and the political establishment that Reform UK represents a small, “extremist” section of the electorate. But this poll underlines that Reform UK is the only major party willing to give a voice to what millions of ordinary people already believe. On borders, national identity, patriotism and equal treatment under the law, Reform UK voters may express these concerns most strongly, but the polling shows that they are shared across the country.
While Labour and the Tories have ignored, dismissed or even insulted these voters, Reform UK has listened to them - and is best placed to rebuild the broken social contract between the British people and the state.
Subscribe to Matt Goodwin’s Substack here.
