Rejoining the European Union could push annual net migration above 500,000, according to new research by Reform UK, as Nigel Farage accused Andy Burnham of “Brexit betrayal writ large”.
The party’s modelling suggests that restoring EU freedom of movement could leave net migration around 214,000 a year higher by 2030 than if Britain remained outside the bloc.
The analysis follows Burnham’s comments last week that he wanted to review all options for Britain’s relationship with the EU, including “going all the way” and rejoining.
“This is Brexit betrayal writ large”, Farage said. “Burnham wants to open the borders to nearly half a billion people with no way of controlling who enters the country.”
Reform’s research modelled what migration between 2021 and 2025 might have looked like had Brexit not happened, assuming higher immigration from EU countries and fewer arrivals from outside Europe.
It estimated that net migration would have been 425,000 higher across those five years. For the year ending December 2025, the model put net migration at 375,000, compared with the recorded figure of 171,000.
Even if the number of foreign workers arriving from outside the EU fell by 60%, Reform’s modelling suggests the increase in EU migration would more than wipe out that reduction.
The result: if Britain rejoined in 2028, annual net migration could be around 214,000 higher by 2030 than if we stayed out. Restoring freedom of movement would mean surrendering Britain’s power to decide who can come here from the EU. Britain’s border crisis is bad enough already. Burnham’s solution to that is to give up even more control and risk driving uncontrolled migration even higher.
As Farage put it: “It’s clear that Open Borders Burnham doesn’t care about the British public’s concerns about immigration.”
The party’s modelling suggests that restoring EU freedom of movement could leave net migration around 214,000 a year higher by 2030 than if Britain remained outside the bloc.
The analysis follows Burnham’s comments last week that he wanted to review all options for Britain’s relationship with the EU, including “going all the way” and rejoining.
“This is Brexit betrayal writ large”, Farage said. “Burnham wants to open the borders to nearly half a billion people with no way of controlling who enters the country.”
Reform’s research modelled what migration between 2021 and 2025 might have looked like had Brexit not happened, assuming higher immigration from EU countries and fewer arrivals from outside Europe.
It estimated that net migration would have been 425,000 higher across those five years. For the year ending December 2025, the model put net migration at 375,000, compared with the recorded figure of 171,000.
Even if the number of foreign workers arriving from outside the EU fell by 60%, Reform’s modelling suggests the increase in EU migration would more than wipe out that reduction.
The result: if Britain rejoined in 2028, annual net migration could be around 214,000 higher by 2030 than if we stayed out. Restoring freedom of movement would mean surrendering Britain’s power to decide who can come here from the EU. Britain’s border crisis is bad enough already. Burnham’s solution to that is to give up even more control and risk driving uncontrolled migration even higher.
As Farage put it: “It’s clear that Open Borders Burnham doesn’t care about the British public’s concerns about immigration.”
