In the wake of the local elections this month, a curious narrative has emerged from Conservative Party headquarters.
Armed with a few surprise gains in London (including clawing back Westminster Council), as well as pointing to modest improvements in personal popularity trackers, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has confidently declared that “the Conservatives are coming back”.
Indeed, several loyal Conservative journalists have breathlessly begun referring to a new phenomenon they call the “Kemi Bounce”. But strip away the headlines, the selective polling and the fevered excitement of sympathetic commentators, and the reality looks considerably harsher.
Close inspection of the local electoral map after 7th May reveals the Conservatives remain structurally and irrevocably broken.
While Badenoch celebrated what she called “green shoots” in atypical London boroughs, her own backyard was engulfed in flames. In Essex, the traditional heartland of blue-collar Thatcherism and home to Badenoch’s own constituency, the Conservatives saw their 25-year reign shattered. Had it been a general election, Badenoch would have certainly lost her seat.
Around the rest of the country, results were equally grim. Reform UK took control of Suffolk County Council from the Conservatives, as we did in Newcastle-under-Lyme. We also made gains at the Conservatives' expense in Brentwood and North East Lincolnshire. A further blow came in Hampshire, where the Conservatives lost control of the council for the first time since 1997.
Meanwhile, the two devolved elections in Wales and Scotland were an unmitigated disaster for the Tories. In the Senedd, they were reduced to a rump of just seven seats, compared to Reform UK's 34 seats.
In Scotland, under the anonymous, policy-lite leadership of Russell Findlay, the Conservatives suffered their worst-ever result north of the border, winning just 12 seats. By contrast, Reform UK, which barely existed in Scotland four years ago, is now the joint second-largest party.
It is true that since the Peter Mandelson affair blew up, Badenoch's stature in the House of Commons has grown somewhat. There has been a marked improvement in her performances at PMQs. But it requires more than a few sharp turns at the dispatch box to convince the electorate you are ready to govern again. Voters will remember that William Hague routinely flattened Tony Blair in the Commons during New Labour’s first term. The result? The Conservatives gained one paltry extra seat at the 2001 election.
The truth is, unless the Conservatives can somehow offer a credible answer to how they will fix the pig’s breakfast they left behind, they remain irreversibly doomed.
Ultimately, the myth of the “Kemi bounce” reflects a deeper SW1 habit of confusing excitement among the Westminster establishment with public opinion. Journalists and political wonks might be impressed by Badenoch, but elections are not won on think-tank panels.
All evidence suggests the Conservative Party is not on the road to recovery. It is on life support, and the prognosis remains terminal.
Armed with a few surprise gains in London (including clawing back Westminster Council), as well as pointing to modest improvements in personal popularity trackers, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has confidently declared that “the Conservatives are coming back”.
Indeed, several loyal Conservative journalists have breathlessly begun referring to a new phenomenon they call the “Kemi Bounce”. But strip away the headlines, the selective polling and the fevered excitement of sympathetic commentators, and the reality looks considerably harsher.
Close inspection of the local electoral map after 7th May reveals the Conservatives remain structurally and irrevocably broken.
While Badenoch celebrated what she called “green shoots” in atypical London boroughs, her own backyard was engulfed in flames. In Essex, the traditional heartland of blue-collar Thatcherism and home to Badenoch’s own constituency, the Conservatives saw their 25-year reign shattered. Had it been a general election, Badenoch would have certainly lost her seat.
Around the rest of the country, results were equally grim. Reform UK took control of Suffolk County Council from the Conservatives, as we did in Newcastle-under-Lyme. We also made gains at the Conservatives' expense in Brentwood and North East Lincolnshire. A further blow came in Hampshire, where the Conservatives lost control of the council for the first time since 1997.
Meanwhile, the two devolved elections in Wales and Scotland were an unmitigated disaster for the Tories. In the Senedd, they were reduced to a rump of just seven seats, compared to Reform UK's 34 seats.
In Scotland, under the anonymous, policy-lite leadership of Russell Findlay, the Conservatives suffered their worst-ever result north of the border, winning just 12 seats. By contrast, Reform UK, which barely existed in Scotland four years ago, is now the joint second-largest party.
It is true that since the Peter Mandelson affair blew up, Badenoch's stature in the House of Commons has grown somewhat. There has been a marked improvement in her performances at PMQs. But it requires more than a few sharp turns at the dispatch box to convince the electorate you are ready to govern again. Voters will remember that William Hague routinely flattened Tony Blair in the Commons during New Labour’s first term. The result? The Conservatives gained one paltry extra seat at the 2001 election.
The truth is, unless the Conservatives can somehow offer a credible answer to how they will fix the pig’s breakfast they left behind, they remain irreversibly doomed.
Ultimately, the myth of the “Kemi bounce” reflects a deeper SW1 habit of confusing excitement among the Westminster establishment with public opinion. Journalists and political wonks might be impressed by Badenoch, but elections are not won on think-tank panels.
All evidence suggests the Conservative Party is not on the road to recovery. It is on life support, and the prognosis remains terminal.
